UFMG odds indicate Cruzeiro is ahead, but Flamengo reduces its lead in the title race
The probability of Cruzeiro being crowned Brazilian champion increased by 4.1% with the 4-0 win over Juventude last Sunday (20/7), at Mineirão, in the 15th round of Série A. The team led by Leonardo Jardim leads the competition with 33 points. They have 10 wins, three draws and two losses.
According to the Mathematics Department at the Federal University of Minas Gerais (UFMG), Cruzeiro now has a 35.5% chance of lifting the Brasileirão trophy. Last round, Cruzeiro had a 31.4% chance. However, Cruzeiro’s main competitor has grown even more. Flamengo had a 19.2% chance and now has a 24.4% chance—a 5.2% increase. In the 15th round, Cruzeiro defeated Fluminense 1-0 at Maracanã.
Filipe Luís’s team is in second place with 30 points. They have nine wins, three draws, and two losses. Flamengo, however, has one game in hand over Cruzeiro – a match postponed from the 12th round due to the FIFA Club World Cup in the United States. Serie A Team Odds
1st – Cruzeiro: 35.5%
2nd – Flamengo: 24.4%
3rd – Palmeiras: 15.4%
4th – Bahia: 7.8%
5th – Bragantino: 5.4%
6th – Botafogo: 4.3%
7th – Mirassol: 2.9%
8th – Fluminense: 1.8%
9th – Atlético: 1.2%
10th – Ceará: 0.36%
11th – Corinthians: 0.34%
12th – Grêmio: 0.20%
13th – Internacional: 0.20%
14th – Santos: 0.095%
15th – São Paulo: 0.068%
16th – Vasco da Gama: 0.057%
17th – Vitória: 0.048%
18th – Juventude: 0.020%
19th – Fortaleza: 0.006%
20th – Sport: 0.000%
